por otro lado, hace unos dias
For the euro to survive, Italy must not fail. That will require leadership and courage
donde:
http://www.economist.com/node/21538161
ahora la academia, con mas herramientas tecnicas
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/7310
el titulo?
Welcome to Eurotaly
Ever since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, contagion has become the stuff of policymakers' nightmares. In recent weeks, with the very real prospect of default by European countries, the sleepless nights are returning. This column provides evidence that markets are bundling all European countries together. They believe that if Italy defaults, it would mean the end of the euro and no country would be left unscathed.
la conclusion de la academia?
Conclusions
The evidence from CDS spreads supports the view that markets once again are bundling European countries all together, with Italy possibly becoming the largest source of contagion and other EZ sovereign bonds providing little diversification opportunities.
If this trend continues and the Italian crisis does not find a solution, France’s and Germany’s ratings will be at risk along with the financial stability of the EZ as a whole. This is why Italians and Europeans (and the US) should exert the utmost pressure to make sure that the Monti experiment does not end in failure. What Italians will do for Italy, bad or good, they will also do for Europe.
que, basicamente es lo que decia Economist, salvo que con numeros
para completar, ahora parece que mucho del shadow banking en USA es de los bancos europeos, y, los alemanes dicen que le van a dar el ultimatum a UK para que desaparezca la libra, lo cual seria coherente con el primer grafico
en fin
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario