discusion

Puse una discion con guzman aca, en lo del abuelo es ocupar espacio no mio

ayj,

muy buena respuesta, no veo porque hay nesesidad de borrarla. disculpe si con tipo de cambio barato le parece que me confundi porque no entiendo, en realidad es porque generalmente escribo en ingles y como no tengo practica en castellano soy de madera, mucho mas con terminos tecnicos en castellano. me referia a un peso por debajo de su REER equilibrio ajustado por change in net foreign asset position y change in productivity.

ahora si, le respondo brevemente:

"podria decirte, si es taaaaaaaaaaaan malo, regalame 100 ha que te pago los impuestos de 200 ha. o, podria decirte que de los nros que ves ahi, si le descontas los 105 de la tierra, es negocio no?"

you dije alquilar, porque el arrendatario alquila no? nadie hablo de ser duenio de las tierras.

Es que realmente, alquilar, dependiendo de la escala, es o no muy buen negocio, buen negocio o solamente una alternativa


"o podria decirte, si es taaaaaaaaaaaan malo, los pools no existirian."

nuevamente le digo, si el pool es tan bueno no sea timido e invierta.

Lamento no haberlo hecho, pero, hay un problema de disponibilidad de recursos

"o podria decirte, si es taaaaaaaaaaaaan malo, a retenciones cero, los chicos se mueren inmediatamente, aunque Mariano no me crea."

Aca no comento, esta de acuerdo?

el tema es que usted asume que todo el gasto del gobierno se concentra en good deeds. that's not the case as u well know it sir. que tal si en vez de cobrar mas impuestos cortamos a los nioquis y las transas? viajes para cristina y demas no?

Digame, ud cree que eso hace al fondo de la cuestion? Ud cree que el porcentual dedicado, a los viajes de Cristina tiene impacto economico? Si lo cree, estamos en Bizancio discutiendo el sexo de los angeles

el segundo error en ese punto es el mas importante: usted asume que la plata sino la cobra el estado, desaparece de alguna forma de la economia. ese no es el caso. la guita se gasta o se re-invierte, y eso genera trabajo (y sin la nesesidad de una burocracia gigante que nos sale bastante carito ya, por ejemplo, la mitad del gasto con jefes y jefas fue administrativo).

Depende, a ver, podemos decir que la reinvierte caro y mal el estado, probablemente, o, podremos decir que si no lo hace el estado vuelve cono utilidades al exterior, lo cual a priori no esta mal, pone plata alguien y tiene derecho a recuperar su ganancia en funcion de las expectativas que utilizo para poner esa plata, digamos Telefonica, ahora, si Telefonica con un estado bobo hace pushing para el rebalanceo y cerrar el mercado para que no ingresen nuevos actores, me hace falta Estado?
O, usando el mismo paradigma de estado chico y bobo, que hubiera sido mejor, pagar planes o mantener las estaciones ineficientes en digamos, Metan (de tren), entonces, ahí creo, aparece la falacia, los planes estan mal, sin duda, pero se generaron a partir de paradigmas incorrectos,


"o podria decirte, si es taaaaaaaaaan malo, es un negocio, solo eso, no una forma de vida, los que pasamos los 90s sabemos lo que te decian reconvertite, y nadie decia nada."

no entiendo, le pide a los chacareros que se re-conviertan?

Por que no, o no es funcion del mercado asignar los recursos en funcion de su utilidad?, Ud dira, pero ellos ganarian plata si no intervieniera el estado, yo le diria, ver arriba, el peon de via de Metan tampoco eligio, y, peor, cuando eligio le dijeron una cosa e hicieron otra, esos no lo hicieron

"o, tambien, ya que estamos, podria decirte, los reintegros no vana funcionar, son monotributistas, no llevan papeles, etc, al final son RI y tienen contador, entonces por que no llenar papeles como un humilde esclavo de 4ta categoria, que es el jamon del sandwich."

pasarse la vida llenando papeles para que un amo te cobre impuestos es el modelo economico que usted defiende. como buen austriaco, si fuera por mi no habria impuestos al comercio, el capital, las ganancias, ni al sueldo. como pagar entonces por los gastos del estado? nuevamente usted es el que propone un estado grande, yo quiero uno lo mas chico posible (lo mas barato posible).

Yo tambien, pero no bobo, y hasta donde conozco, no existe el estado chico y eficiente, y la ley esta para ser cumplida, sino, votemos a otros, no? No cambie el tema de defensa del campo a paradigma de estado

"o, para finalizar, podria decirte que biblicamente, dime con quien andas y etc etc, recordar aplausos en la Rural."

no entendi su punto.

Facil, los socios de la SRA con FAA son agua y aceite, la SRA aplaudia a un presidente que tuvimos alto y de ojos celestes, mientras los de FAA se ataban a las tranqueras para evitar remates, aun hoy, uno de llos puntos de la FAA son 6000 y pico de chacareros con prestamos que piden condonacion, hayq ue darselas?

"en cuanto a anda y saca un prestamo, me atreveria a decirte que:
a) si lo sacas a tasa real no hay inversion que lo soporte
b) si lo sacas a tasa subsidiada lo pagamos todos."

que linda falacia. crea un problema y despues lo usa como excusa para defender su solucion (que no involucra desaserse de ese problema por supuesto).

Momento, a tasa real significa, alguien pone en el banco, el banco deberia pagarle mas de la inflacion, mas su spread lo presta, funciona asi en cualquier lugar del mundo que conozca, (pls no mme venga con el multiplicador bancario si?) luego el prestamo es a tasa real
El tema es que nuestros bancos son de decima, pero no hay otros


tasas altas? sera porque somos un pais populista? porque es que brazil tiene tasas bajas? usted bien sabe asique para que me repito.

Populista son todos, al fin y al cabo son politicos, nostros tambien tuvimos tasas bajas


usted sabra. yo no se a quien voto usted. pero asumo que esta del lado de los K. por ende usted voto las tasas altas senior, o que piensa que el populismo viene gratis? asique le digo nuevamente, valla saque el prestamo, jueguese e invierta en el campo, despues, recien despues, hable en contra del unico sector de la economia que sobrevive sin subsidios netos.

no encotre el lugar donde mencionaba 1810, pero, si lo lleva tan atrás, a la ley de enfiteusis la pagamaos todos, la conquista del desierto, tambien, o no?
Y, subsidios, cuantos años tuvimos subsidio al azucar, que, hasta donde yo sepa, se planta?

"pero, estimado, como te dije, no hay inocentes, en ninguno de los bandos en pugna."



totalmente deacuerdo. pero si hay un libro que se llama 'the road to serfdom', se lo recomiendo.

Hayek, eso es una vision que, podre o no compartir, pero, como dijo un asesor de reagan (insospechado de populismo) nos lleva a dos cosas
a) si los chicos son mas baratos para trabajar, que trabajen los chicos
b) Exportar bienes y no producir aca nos deja sin empleo, pongamos barreras a la importacion

Y, mas aun, cuando se deja actuar a Darwin en el mercado el corolario es Malthus, creo que ninguno me desmentira si digo que el campo no alcanza para que todos vivamos y trabajemos para el campo, que hacemos con el resto.

Creo que no me expreso bien, yo no estoy en contra del campo, enlo absoluto, prefiero mil veces al chacarero chico dando vueltas en la plaza, como escribi una y mil veces, ni vote a esta presidenta, como le dije, se sorprenderia, y mucho, pero, tambien me crie casi con los tobillos mojados de tanto lamento, y por razones laborales, he recorrido muchas rutas, y el modelo es el mismo siempre
Me va bien, estado malo no me saques plata y te evado por donde pueda
Me va mal, veni estado, condoname, no puedo pagar, ayudame, etc etc
Es la condcion humana, probablemente, pero, las excusas, como lo del monotributista que magicamente se transformo en RI son estupendas.
Y, un solo ejemplo, desde hace mas de 3 años que se sabe que faltara gasoil, que se puede hacer de biodiesel, en vez de hacerselo, se quejan que no hay (a precio subsidiado obviamente) , la verdad es que el mas caro es el inexsitente, pero no se lo fabrican, en fin

Saludos cordiales,

saludos cordiales.

El resto creo que esta por ahí en lo de arriba

Copyright

despues de haber dicho mil veces Pirro, ahora aparece Grondona en la Nacion, no le voy a cobrar la idea.

El culpable perfecto

Moody's computer 'bug' caused over-optimistic credit ratings
Computer says yes!
By John Oates → More by this author
Published Wednesday 21st May 2008 14:53 GMT
Nail down your security priorities. Ask the experts and your peers at The Register Security Debate, April 17, 2008

Moody's saw its shares slide on opening this morning, after reports that the institutional rating firm had blamed bugs in its computer model for leading it to grade several debt parcels as almost without risk for investors.

The ratings firm announced a review of the way it changed its ratings methodology when the FT reported the problems this morning. Moody's shares slid over eight per cent when the markets opened today.

The problem dated back to 2006, and resulted in some products getting the top AAA rating when in fact they should have been as much as four ratings lower, according to the FT.

Senior staff were aware of the problem in 2007 and the code was changed, the paper said - but many products retained their rating until January of this year. Such ratings are vital because many institutional investors like pension funds can only invest in triple-A rated products.

The disputed ratings were mostly awarded to "constant proportion debt obligations" or CPDOs - essentially bundled products of debt which were structured in such a way as to apparently reduce the risk to almost nothing. But their dependence on credit markets meant CPDOs were the first to suffer when sub-prime mortages began to collapse.

Moody's is "conducting a thorough review", both of the ratings and of how much executives knew, according to the FT.

The company told the paper it regularly changed analytical models, but: "It would be inconsistent with Moody's analytical standards and company policies to change methodologies in an effort to mask errors."

Rival rating agency Standard & Poor's awarded triple-A ratings to CBDOs before Moody's, but insisted it did the maths separately.

Moody's is already facing legal action in the US from groups including the Teamsters Union, who blamed Moody's for over-rating debt related to US mortgages.

Moody's was unable to comment at time of writing

De luchas varias

Las luchas actuales, campo vs gobierno, medialuna versus altiplano, me hicieron acordar de un termino, que, a todos los horroriza, pero todos lo usan

Realpolitik


Es la política exterior basada en intereses prácticos más que en la teoría o la ética.

Otto von Bismarck acuñó el término al cumplir la petición del príncipe Klemens von Metternich de encontrar un método para equilibrar el poder entre los imperios europeos. El balance de poderes significaba la paz, y los practicantes de la realpolitik intentaban evitar la carrera armamentista. Sin embargo, durante los primeros años del siglo XX, la realpolitik fue abandonada y en su lugar se implementó la doctrina "Weltpolitik", y la carrera armamentista recobró su ritmo, dando lugar a la Primera Guerra Mundial.

La realpolitik aboga por el avance en los intereses nacionales de un país, en lugar de seguir principios éticos o teóricos.

Uno de los precursores más famosos fue Nicolás Maquiavelo, conocido por su obra "El Príncipe". Maquiavelo sostenía que la única preocupación de un príncipe debería ser la de buscar y retener el poder, sin importar consideraciones éticas o religiosas. Sus ideas fueron más tarde expandidas y practicadas por el Cardenal Richelieu en su raison d'etat durante la Guerra de los Treinta Años. El historiador griego Tucídides y el teórico militar chino Sun Tzu también son citados como precursores de la realpolitik.

En alemán, el término Realpolitik es más frecuentemente utilizado para distinguir a las políticas modestas (realistas) de las políticas exageradas. El que Prusia no haya confiscado territorio austrohúngaro después de ganar la guerra fue un resultado del seguimiento de la realpolitik, persiguiendo como fin último la reunificación alemana bajo mandato prusiano. Hoy en día, la parte realista ("Realos") de un partido político no tiene problemas para ceder en algunos de sus principios si es necesario, con tal de conseguir cierto progreso, mientras que los fundamentalistas ("Fundis") evitan a toda costa ceder en sus principios o comprometerlos, aunque ello signifique renunciar a los puestos de toma de decisiones.

FTE Wiki

Haciendo honor al titular de este blog

No se puede creer en nada

Udo of Aachen

Udo of Aachen (1200–1270) is a fictional monk, a creation of British technical writer Ray Girvan, who introduced him in an April Fool's hoax article in 1999.

According to the article, Udo was a mystic and poet whose work was set to music by Carl Orff with the haunting O Fortuna in Carmina Burana — actually the work of itinerant goliards, found in the German Benedictine monastery of Benediktbeuern Abbey.

Udo was also an illustrator and theologian, supposedly he discovered the Mandelbrot set, some 700 years before Benoît Mandelbrot. His works were rediscovered by the also-fictional Bob Schipke, a Harvard mathematician, who saw a picture of the Mandelbrot set in an illumination for a 13th century carol.

The monk's supposed finding was lent an air of credibility because often medieval monks did discover scientific and mathematical theories, only to have them hidden or shelved due to persecution or simply ignored because publication prior to the invention of the printing press was difficult at best. Mr. Girvan adds to this suggestion by associating Udo with several other more legitimate discoveries where an author was considered ahead of his time in terms of a scientific theory of some sort that is now established as a mainstream theory but was considered fringe science at the time.

The other aspect of the deception was that it was very common for pre-20th century mathematicians to spend incredible amounts of time on hand calculations such as a logarithm table or trigonometric functions. Calculating all of the points for a Mandelbrot set is a comparable activity that would seem tedious today but would be routine for people of the time. That a 13th century monk would spend his time doing some apparently meaningless calculation increased confidence in the accuracy of the story.

Mandelbrot

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THE MANDELBROT MONK by Ray Girvan Until recently, Udo of Aachen occupied a sideline in the history books as a minor poet, copyist and theological essayist. Even his birth and death dates of this mediaeval Benedictine monk are unknown, though he probably lived from around 1200-1270 AD. [*1] A new study of his work, however, has led to his recognition as an outstandingly original and talented mathematician. While Udo himself is little-known, one of his works is far more familiar. This 13th century German monk was the author of a poem called Fortuna Imperatrix Mundi (Luck, Empress of the World) in the collection of mediaeval underground verses now known as the Carmina Burana. [*2] Orchestrated by composer Carl Orff in 1937, Udo's poem is now widespread as the choral work, O Fortuna, which has been used by the media many times, from incidental music to the film Excalibur to the backing for after-shave lotion advertisements. The first clue to Udo's undiscovered skills was found by mathematician Bob Schipke, a retired professor of combinatorics. On a holiday visit to Aachen cathedral, the burial place of Charlemagne, Schipke saw something that amazed him. In a tiny nativity scene illuminating the manuscript of a 13th century carol, O froehliche Weihnacht, he noticed that the Star of Bethlehem looked odd. On examining it in detail, he saw that the gilded image seemed to be a representation of the Mandelbrot set, one of the icons of the computer age. [*3] Discovered in 1976 by IBM researcher Benoit Mandelbrot, the Mandelbrot set is the most famous fractal (a mathematical object with the property of infinite detail). Only the advent of fast computers made feasible the repeated calculations involved - or so it was thought. [*4] "I was stunned," Schipke says. "It was like finding a picture of Bill Gates in the Dead Sea Scrolls. The colophon [the title page] named the copyist as Udo of Aachen, and I just had to find out more about this guy." Schipke visited Bavaria, where the poems, Cantiones profanae (now the Carmina Burana), were discovered in 1837. Written by wandering scholars and monks in the 13th century, they were collected as an anthology in the Benedictine monastery at Beuron, near Munich, and Schipke began his search there. With the help of historian Dr Antje Eberhardt at the University of Munich, Schipke gained access to ecclesiastical archives, where he found a document called the Codex Udolphus. Written in illuminated Latin, with informal marginalia in Greek, the Codex bore the signature of Udo himself. "Although it had been discovered in the 19th century, it had promptly been filed away again," Schipke says. "The local historian who found it was clearly no mathematician, and dismissed it as obscure theology. But it yielded several major surprises." In a recent paper, Schipke and Eberhardt report on Udo's discoveries. [*5] The first chapter, Astragali (Dice) was originally thought to be a discourse on the evils of gambling. It turned out to be Udo's research into what we now would call probability theory. He derived simple rules to add and multiply probabilities, and thus devised strategies for several card and dice games. The second part, Fortuna et Orbis (Luck and a Circle) describes Udo's determination of the value of pi by scattering equal sticks on a ruled surface, and counting what proportion lie across the lines. This was an anticipation of the Buffon's Needle technique, named after the 18th century mathematician normally credited with its discovery. [*6] This is a very laborious method, but Udo managed to get a respectable - but very lucky - approximation of 866/275 (3.1418...) and had enough confidence in it to dispute the value of pi=3 implied in the Bible. [*7] (I say 'lucky' because Buffon's Method converges extremely badly, and it's well possible that Udo achieved this good result by choosing his stopping point judiciously - perhaps influenced by the 3.1418 quoted by his contemporary, Leonard of Pisa, otherwise known as Fibonacci). Schipke continues: "What was interesting at this point was that we looked back at the words of O Fortuna, and suddenly they fell into place. Verse two - Luck / like the moon / changeable in state / We are cast down / like straws upon a ploughed field / Our fates measuring / the eternal circle - is very clearly an allusion to the Buffon's Needle method." [*8] More was to come. In the final and longest chapter, Salus (Salvation), Schipke uncovered the most radical work. Udo had, it seemed, investigated the Mandelbrot set, seven centuries before Mandelbrot. Initially, Udo's aim was to devise a method for determining who would reach heaven. He assumed each person's soul was composed of independent parts he called "profanus" (profane) and "animi" (spiritual), and represented these parts by a pair of numbers. Then he devised rules for drawing and manipulating these number pairs. In effect, he devised the rules for complex arithmetic, the spiritual and profane parts corresponding to the real and imaginary numbers of modern mathematics. In Salus, Udo describes how he used these numbers: "Each person's soul undergoes trials through each of the threescore years and ten of allotted life, [encompassing?] its own nature and diminished or elevated in stature by others [it] encounters, wavering between good and evil until [it is] either cast into outer darkness or drawn forever to God." When Schipke saw the translation, at once he saw it for what it was: an allegorical description of the iterative process for calculating the Mandelbrot. In mathematical terms, Udo's system was to start with a complex number z, then iterate it up to 70 times by the rule z -> z*z + c, until z either diverged or was caught in an orbit. [*4] Below the description was drawn the first crude plot of the Mandelbrot, which Udo called the "Divinitas" ("Godhead"). He set it out in a 120x120 frame he termed a "columbarium" (i.e. a dovecote, which has a similar grid of niches) and records that it took him nine years to calculate, even with the newly imported technique of ‘algorism', calculation with Arabic numerals rather than abacus. "It tends to be taken for granted," Schipke says, "That the Mandelbrot is too calculation-intensive to be done without computers. What we have to remember is the sheer devotion of the monastic life. This was a labour of faith, and Udo was prepared to work for years. Some slowly-converging pixels must have taken weeks." Why did the work of this gifted mathematician go unnoticed for so long? Schipke blames, in part, specialisation. "When the Codex was unearthed in 1879, only a non-mathematician got to see it, and he didn't know what he was looking at. It's a common enough story. Take Hildegard of Bingen, whose accounts of her visions were taken as pure mysticism, but neurologist Oliver Sacks instantly recognised them as accurate descriptions of migraine symptoms. Likewise, literary critics dismissed Edgar Allan Poe's final work, Eureka, as alcoholic ravings. But now scientists are finding valid insights in it, such as Poe's correct solution of the Olbers paradox in astronomy, or his coining of the classic Einsteinian phrase, 'Space and duration are one'." [*9, *10] "But there were also contemporary reasons why Udo's knowledge didn't make it into the mainstream. His basic belief - that salvation and damnation could be determined in advance - was heretical, and his use of Arabic numerals was thought a bit of a black art. And there was the disagreement with Thelonius." Despite the borderline nature of his work, Udo impressed his abbot at the monastery of Sankt Umbertus near Aachen. Life for a 13th century monk wasn't necessarily austere: the scurrilous Cantiones profanae poems record the delights of sex, eating, drinking and gambling. In a footnote to Astragali, Udo writes: "My enumeration of the ways [of dice] helped my lord abbot to win thirty-two florins and a fine new cloak from the Burgermeister at Irrendorf, and he has promised me a helper for my work". But Udo and his helper, Thelonius, ran into instant disagreement. Udo had always interpreted the Mandelbrot as signifying God. Thelonius took the opposite view: that it represented the Devil. Numbers that escaped to infinity, he argued, were souls flying free to heaven, and those caught in an orbit had fallen into the pit of Hell. Like many theological collaborations, they had a schism on their hands. Udo noted that their differences brought all work to a halt, and finally the two were reprimanded by the abbot for coming to blows in the refectory. "Sadly I write," says Udo on the last page of the Codex Udolphus, "that on pain of excommunication I must lay down my dice and my numbers. I have seen into a realm of heavenly complexity, and my heart is heavy that the door is now closed." Bob Schipke comments: "It's a pity that personal differences ended research that could have moved mathematics forward by centuries. But fortunately, Udo couldn't leave the subject alone. By dropping clues into the Cantiones profanae and the manuscripts he illuminated later in his life, he ensured that we were able to recover his work and give him the recognition that he deserves."

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Spinoza

Quizá alguien piense, sin embargo, que de este modo convertimos a los súbditos en esclavos, por creer que es esclavo quien obra por una orden, y libre quien vive a su antojo. Pero esto está muy lejos de ser verdad, ya que, en realidad, quien es llevado por sus apetitos y es incapaz de ver ni hacer nada que le sea útil, es esclavo al máximo; y sólo es libre aquel que vive con sinceridad bajo la sola guía de la razón. La acción realizada por un mandato, es decir; la obediencia suprime de algún modo la libertad; pero no es la obediencia, sino el fin de la acción, lo que hace a uno esclavo. Si el fin de la acción no es la utilidad del mismo agente, sino del que manda, entonces el agente es esclavo e inútil para sí.