James Burke (1)

La verdad, es vieja, pero deberia ser obligatoria, aca va la primer parte

El dia que el mundo cambió

La serie El dia que el universo cambio analiza como la concepción que el hombre tiene del Universo va cambiando de acuerdo con los descubrimientos científicos, de este modo se analizan diez cambios cientí­ficos y téccnicos que modificaron en gran medida la manera en como la gente veía al Universo. Los diez capitulos de la serie, junto con un pequeño resumen de los mismos, son los siguientes:

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• Tal Como Somos (The Way We Are)
  Vemos lo que nuestro saber nos dice que estamos viendo. Nuestra visión del mundo depende de lo que sabemos; y cuando cambia nuestro saber, nuestra visión del mundo cambia con el. Valoramos nuestra visión del mundo en función del esfuerzo que estamos dispuestos a invertir para salvaguardarla.
  Hace 2700 años en la costa de la actual Turquia, los jonios iniciaron una epoca de exploración marítima y de comercio. En este ambiente, Tales de Mileto fue el primero en hacerse preguntas practicas acerca de la Naturaleza. Preguntas tales como de que esta hecho el mundo, de donde viene, ... e‰l, y otros como el que vinieron mas tarde, crearon una estructura de pensamiento capaz de enfrentarse a casi cualquier problema: el racionalismo.
  Es en esta estructura donde se hacen las preguntas que tarde o temprano cambiaran lo que somos. Finalmente, la tonica constante en la vida es el cambio.

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• La Luz de las Alturas (In the Light of the Above)
  Tras la caida del Imperio Romano de Occidente diversas ordenes religiosas, en especial los seguidores de Agustin, mantenian viva la llama del saber. Sin embargo, vivian de espaldas a la realidad misma, se interpretaba todo desde el punto de vista religioso y solo se disponia del saber antiguo.
  En 768 dC Carlomagno llega al poder y trata de impulsar la cultura mediante la alfabetización; sin embargo, tras su muerte volvio la decadencia. A mediados del siglo X Europa se recuperaba, empezaron a proliferar los mercados y en el siglo XI se compilo el derecho romano en un intento de ordenar el crecimiento anarquico de distintas ciudades comerciales.
  Hacia aquella epoca, la España arabe disfrutaba de una calidad de vida sin precedentes y disponia de dos grandes tesoros: la Alhambra y la Gran Biblioteca con cerca de 400000 volumenes. Hacia el 1085 dC Andalucia empezaba a desmembrarse en distintas facciones y finalmente fue reconquistada por los cristianos. Cuando estos empezaron a traducir los libros arabes se hicieron con un saber que cambiaria el mundo.
  Tras esto, en Bolonia, se crea la primera Universidad. Se abria la puerta a una nueva manera de pensar y se empezo a descartar la vision monastica del mundo. En Francia, la Iglesia empezo a poner trabas a esta nueva manera de pensar ya que solo aceptaba dos tipos de verdades, la revelada y la filosofica.
  Hacia finales del siglo XIII, se empezaron a estudiar los fenomenos opticos. En el año 1304 dC Teodorico estudia el Arco Iris mediante esferas de vidrio y botellas de agua llegando a resultados sorprendentes. Nuestra manera de ver el mundo ya no volveria a ser la misma. "Cree y ya lo entenderas" fue sustituido por "Dame los hechos y lo pensare". En las nuevas Universidades se forjaba una nueva vision del mundo en la que era posible trabajar para mejorar el mañana.

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• Punto de Vista (Point of View)
  En el año 1394 una expedicion de Constantinopla comandada por Crisaloras llega a Italia en busca de auxilio. En Florencia, Crisaloras propaga el conocimiento clasico, incluido un mapa de la Tierra elaborado por Ptolomeo que incluia coordenadas.
  En 1424, Toscanelli conocia a Brunellesci. Toscanelli habia estudiado la nueva ciencia de la optica y habla de ella a Brunellesci quien empezo a desarrollar la geometria perpectiva. Alberti escribia un manual de como pintar en perspectiva y esta se convirtio en una nueva manera de medir el universo. El desarrollo matematico a que condujo permitio, en entre otras cosas, la creacion de nuevas construcciones.
  Por aquel entonces, Portugal enviaba expediciones hacia el África meridional, para llegar a las Indias, empleando mapas que se construian mediante perspectiva y cuadriculas como las del mapa de Ptolomeo. En Sierra Leona, la estrella polar estaba ya tan baja en el horizonte que complicaba en extremo este tipo de travesias. Por este motivo, Toscanelli construyo un mapa cuadriculado y propuso una ruta del Atlantico para ir al Japon. Sin embargo, el mapa era erroneo ya que, en el, Asia era 5000 millas demasiado grande. Colon se hizo con el mapa de Toscanelli y redujo la circunferencia de la Tierra para convencer a Portugal de emprender el viaje, no lo consiguio.
  Finalmente, convencio a España, y Colon en lugar de llegar a Cipango (Japon) llego a un nuevo continente, America.

Siguen las historias

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Sigue el Baile en Antigua

EU online gambling firms demand $100 bil in WTO dispute

US thumbs nose with comical settlement offers

The long-running, occasionally tragicomic trade dispute between America and tiny Antigua at the WTO over the cross-border provision of gambling services has sputtered into the settlement phase, according to CasinoGamblingWeb.

Although Antigua has roundly defeated its lumbering, puritanical northern neighbor at every step of the way in its WTO case, the US still seems disinclined to address the WTO ruling seriously. The current administration seems content to drag its heels as long as it can, in the hopes, as always, of foisting difficult policy decisions off on whatever administration has the misfortune to follow.

The case origininated back in 2003 after the prosecution of Jay Cohen, an expatriate American who ran a sportsbook out of Antigua called the World Sports Exchange, and ended up doing time in a federal prison - in Las Vegas, of all places - for violation of the Wire Act. The high profile prosecution led the Antiguan authorities to file a formal complaint with the WTO, because the US continued to allowe US companies to offer various forms of remote domestic gambling while aggressively prosecuting Antiguan companies under legislation originally drafted to fight the mob. A fuller treatment of the case can be found here, but, suffice to say, the WTO sided with the Antiguans.

The ramifications of that defeat are still rippling around the world, and major American trading partners such as the EU and Japan have begun lining up behind the Antiguans in defense of WTO principles. Potential damages are really starting to pile up - the AP reported today that EU online gambling firms are pressing for $100 bil in damages.

Traditional trade sanctions would do little for a small country like Antigua, so the WTO rules allow smaller countries the option of suspending their own WTO commitments, and the Antiguans have been threatening to suspend their intellectual property obligations to the US. That in turn ultimately caught the attention of powerful Silicon Valley and Hollywood interests, and last week the mainstream American press suddenly discovered that something important was happening.

Antigua filed a claim with the WTO for $3.4 bil to compensate the little island nation for the economic fallout resulting from repeated American legal attacks on Antigua-based internet gambling providers. The US has countered with an offer of - ahem - $500,000. The EU, however, is the largest and most dynamic online gambling market in the world, and the US is trying to buy that claim out by offering to liberalize such dynamic, hot-growth economic sectors as warehousing and storage services.

As Mark Mendel, lead attorney for the Antiguans, told El Reg, "But anyway, the U.S. in its submission said our damages were only $500,000 a year. Our $3.4 billion claim is per annum from April, 2006. In the WTO system, you cannot get compensation for past harm, it is only starting with the end of the supposed compliance period. I feel pretty good about our numbers, and I think the U.S. typically shot themselves in the foot by being so cavalierly dismissive of our claims with that ridiculous number. But, we shall soon see — a decision will be out by the end of November."®

Proceres Argentinos

Entrega en serie, 2da? parte

¿Por que no puedo encontrar una biografia de Miguel de Miranda?

El personaje en cuestion modelo la Argentina de los años 45 al 90

Disgresion

Leyendo un poco me encontre con un hecho poco conocido, relacionado con la marcha a Washington en los 30s, si Uriburu hubiera sido como esta persona, como hubieran sido las cosas?

The Business Plot, The Plot Against FDR

  The White House Putsch, was a conspiracy involving several wealthy businessmen to overthrow President of the United States Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933.

Purported details of the matter came to light when retired Marine Corps Major General Smedley Butler testified before a Congressional committee that a group of men had attempted to recruit him to serve as the leader of a plot and to assume and wield power once the coup was successful. Butler testified before the McCormack-Dickstein Committee in 1934 ^[1]. In his testimony, Butler claimed that a group of several men had approached him as part of a plot to overthrow Roosevelt in a military coup. One of the alleged plotters, Gerald MacGuire, vehemently denied any such plot. In their final report, the Congressional committee supported Butler's allegations on the existence of the plot,^[2] but no prosecutions or further investigations followed, and the matter was mostly forgotten.

General Butler claimed that the American Liberty League was the primary means of funding the plot. The main backers were the Du Pont family, as well as leaders of U.S. Steel, General Motors, Standard Oil, Chase National Bank, and Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company. A BBC documentary claims Prescott Bush, father and grandfather to the 41st and 43rd US Presidents respectively, was also connected.

McCormack-Dickstein Committee

The events testified to in the McCormack-Dickstein Committee happened between July and November 1933. The Committee began examining evidence a year later, on November 20, 1934. On November 24 the committee released a statement detailing the testimony it had heard about the plot and its preliminary findings. On February 15, 1935, the committee submitted to the House of Representatives its final report.^[9] The McCormack-Dickstein Committee was the precursor to the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC); its materials are archived with those of the HUAC.

During the McCormack-Dickstein Committee hearings, Butler testified that through MacGuire and Bill Doyle, who was then the department commander of the American Legion in Massachusetts,[16] the conspirators attempted to recruit him to lead a coup, promising him an army of 500,000 men for a march on Washington, D.C., $30 million in financial backing,[17] and generous media spin control.

[BUTLER:] I said, "The idea of this great group of soldiers, then, is to sort of frighten him, is it?"

"No, no, no; not to frighten him. This is to sustain him when others assault him."

I said, "Well, I do not know about that. How would the President explain it?"

He said: "He will not necessarily have to explain it, because we are going to help him out. Now, did it ever occur to you that the President is overworked? We might have an Assistant President, somebody to take the blame; and if things do not work out, he can drop him."

He went on to say that it did not take any constitutional change to authorize another Cabinet official, somebody to take over the details of the office-take them off the President's shoulders. He mentioned that the position would be a secretary of general affairs-a sort of a supersecretary.

CHAIRMAN: A secretary of general affairs?

BUTLER: That is the term used by him-or a secretary of general welfare-I cannot recall which. I came out of the interview with that name in my head. I got that idea from talking to both of them, you see [MacGuire and Clark]. They had both talked about the same kind of relief that ought to be given the President, and he [MacGuire] said: "You know, the American people will swallow that. We have got the newspapers. We will start a campaign that the President's health is failing. Everybody can tell that by looking at him, and the dumb American people will fall for it in a second." Archer, Jules (1973), p. 155.

Despite Butler's support for Roosevelt in the election,^[4] and his reputation as a strong critic of capitalism, Butler said the plotters felt his good reputation and popularity were vital in attracting support amongst the general public, and saw him as easier to manipulate than others.

Butler said he spoke for thirty minutes with Gerald MacGuire. MacGuire was a bond salesman for Robert Sterling Clark, an heir to the Singer Sewing Machine fortune, an art collector who lived mostly in Paris, and one of Wall Street's richest investors. MacGuire was a former commander of the Connecticut American Legion and had been an activist for the gold currency movement that Clark sponsored. [18]

In attempting to recruit Butler, MacGuire may have played on the general's loyalty toward his fellow veterans. Knowing of an upcoming bonus in 1935 for World War I veterans, Butler said MacGuire told him, "We want to see the soldiers' bonus paid in gold. We do not want the soldier to have rubber money or paper money." Such names as Al Smith, Roosevelt's political foe and former governor of New York, and Irénée du Pont, a chemical industrialist, were said to be the financial and organizational backbone of the plot. Butler stated that once the conspirators were in power, they would protect Roosevelt from other plotters.^[10]

Given a successful coup, Butler said that the plan was for him to have held near-absolute power in the newly created position of "Secretary of General Affairs," while Roosevelt would have assumed a figurehead role.

Reaction to Butler's testimony by the media and business elite was dismissive or hostile. The majority of media outlets, including The New York Times, Philadelphia Post,^[11] and Time Magazine ridiculed or downplayed his claims, saying they lacked evidence. After the committee concluded, The New York Times and Time Magazine downplayed the conclusions of the committee.^[12]

The committee deleted extensive excerpts from the report relating to Wall Street financiers including J. P. Morgan, the Du Pont interests, Remington Arms, and others allegedly involved in the plot attempt. As of 1975, a full transcript of the hearings had yet to be traced.^[13]

Those accused of the plotting by Butler all denied any involvement. MacGuire was the only figure identified by Butler who testified before the committee. Others involved were actually called to appear to testify, though never were forced to testify.

Aparentemente, Roosvelt arreglo para mandar a la tumba todo el incidente, en la biografia de Smedley esta descripto

Proceres argentinos

Entrega en serie, 1ra parte

Ronald Richter

Ronald Richter (1909-1991) was an Austrian, later Argentinian, scientist who became famous in connection with the Huemul Project and the National Atomic Energy Commission. This was intended to generate energy from nuclear fusion in the 1950s in Argentina, during the regime of Juan Perón. Richter's project would deliver — according to Perón's 1951 announcements — cheap energy in containers of two sizes: half liter and one liter, not unlike the milk bottles then in use.[1]

Nationality

Of German origin, Richter was born in Falkenau an der Eger during the Austrian rule of the Czech Sudetenland (now the Czech Republic). In Czech, the locality was known until 1948 as Falknov nad Ohří; it was then renamed Sokolov.

Different sources attribute to Richter either Austrian or German nationality. Eventually he was naturalized Argentine. This last nationality was acquired when President Juan Perón overrode Argentine law (Gambini, 1999, v.1, p.397).

Studies

Richter attended the German University of Prague. Different sources provide variant narratives about his studies as a doctoral candidate.

According to Gambini (1999, v.1, p.396), Richter was awarded a doctorate in natural sciences in 1955. [However, another source claims that he was not awarded a doctoral degree because he had misinterpreted his research results. He had concluded that he had discovered delta rays being emitted by the earth, but in fact he had been detecting X-rays scattered by the ground.

According to his recollection, Mayo (2004) had personally heard Richard Gans say:

Richter proposed a thesis, at the German University of Prague, to detect "delta rays" emitted from Earth. Professor Heinrich Rausch von Traubenberg did not agree with the project. The "young genius" went to work somewhere else and graduated in a different field.

Kurt Sitte's recollections of Richter's research under Prof. Furth differed. He recalls (Mariscotti, 1985, p.277-8):

...when I was Prof. Furth's assistant in the Department of Experimental Physics [of Prague University], [Richter] came to interest us in a fantastic project. He had read (not in a scientific journal, of course) about the discovery of a mysterious radiation, the "earth rays", that radiated from the interior of the Earth and caused a huge type of fabulous effects. These were what he wanted to research. He was very excited with the idea, and it was very difficult ot convince him (if we really did) that the "evidence" cited was spurious. His thesis was not published (Mariscotti, 1985, p.208, quoting Alemann, 1955)

De Wiki, y me dio pereza traducir

Propiedad Intelectual

La propiedad intelectual es uno de los bienes mas preciados para cada sociedad a medida que va avanzando en su desarrollo. Recordemos que USA solo adhirio a Berna en 1876, y, que tenemos pendiente un problema con Monsanto (voy aprendiendo de agricultura).
Releyendo por algun lado, me encontre con un diferendo que, va en camino de acuerdo a lo que leo de transformarse en un leading case de esto, y del libre comercio.
A pesar que les deje los links a algunas personass con las cuales aprendo, me parecio al menos divertido insertar aca

Los actores:

1. USA. No hace falta agregar mucho
2. Antigua . Islita del caribe, que aparte de playa tiene:

Internet hosting & gaming

Antigua is a recognized centre for online gambling companies. Antigua was one of the first nations to legalize, license and regulate online gaming.

El Hecho?

Some countries, most notably the United States, argue that because the gaming transaction is initiated in their jurisdictions that the act of online wagering is illegal. This argument has been repudiated by the World Trade Organization.^[2] However in 2006 the United States Congress voted to approve the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act which criminalizes the operations of offshore gaming operators which take wagers from American-based gamblers.

Slysoft, a vendor of CD- and DVD-copying software designed to overcome anti-copy technologies also operates from Antigua.

Lo que pasa

Antigua Seriously Pushing For WTO Approval To Distribute Free Music And Movies

Since 2003, we've been following the saga of Antigua's fight against the US in the World Trade Organization. Basically, Antigua argued that the US's ban on online gambling violated the free trade agreement the two countries had signed -- as it blocked online gambling sites based in Antigua (of which there are a bunch). Since then, the case has been fun to watch if only for how the US has responded to it. The WTO ruled in favor of Antigua at which point the US basically ignored the WTO, despite the WTO occasionally making angry noises. Then, there was the time that the US went so far as to declare that the WTO had reversed that original ruling on appeal... but the details showed that the US was making up that claim and the WTO was still supporting Antigua. Earlier this year, after the WTO started stomping its feet again, the US responded by saying it was simply (unilaterally) going to change its free trade agreement with Antigua, so that online gambling wasn't included. Obviously, Antigua finds that solution quite troublesome.

Back in early 2006, however, a few people began buzzing about an idea that Antigua could use to force the US to pay attention: become an WTO-backed ignorer of US copyright law. Since the US knew it could effectively ignore Antigua over online gambling, the idea was that Antigua should simply say that if the US won't support its free trade agreement, then it would start ignoring US copyright laws, and would then (with WTO-backing, mind you) allow modern versions of all sorts of copyright-violating services to prosper. We didn't think that Antigua would seriously go in this direction, but as a new NY Times article makes clear it's exactly what Antigua is now pushing for. Of course, the real hope is that in doing so, the Big Copyright players will force the US government to back down on the gambling issue. However, it might be a lot more interesting to see what would happen if Antigua really did become the protected legal home of more modern versions of (the old) Napster, my.mp3.com, the Pirate Bay, Allofmp3.com and others.

Este es un pequeño resumen, hay diversos, pero hay dinero en juego, ya estan reclamando USD 4,3Bn de dañosVa a ser divertido ver como sigue

Burbujas y Minsky

Leyendo acerca de la explosion y las burbujas inmobiliarias, en un lugar que frecuento, me encontre con esto, que me hizo acordar al procer cuyo nombre ostenta este blog, y un colega de el, Ponzi, de una persona que vive de esto

Minsky Has His Moment

July 29th, 2007 by reality

The Minsky Moment is important because it means the beginning of forced selling. Buying driven by ever-increasing leverage stops, and selling to decrease leverage begins. The deleveraging sellers are there because they must sell.

Last week, the stock market had its first significant bout of selling since the China-driven break in late February. Up to this last week, the buying has been relentless. The chart at left, borrowed from a May piece by Robert Prechter, shows one part of the debt - the credit extended to hedge funds - that has been driving up prices.

NYSE margin debt was a record $378 billion in June, about one-third higher than the previous peak in early 2000.

While there is some modest coverage in the press about the turmoil in the credit markets, it is not getting the coverage it should. As the Minsky Moment passes and the bust begins, it will be important to monitor the state of the credit markets. Fortunately, we have the excellent Markit site showing the yield spreads and the cost of credit default swaps. They lay it out pretty well, although it is not obvious what the various indices are. A brief directory:

• ABX are the asset-backed indices, meaning the collateral for the credit is physical. Right now only the ABX-HE series exists, although others such as auto loans will be provided in the future. HE means Home Equity, these are second mortgages and lines of credit.
• CDX covers corporate debt of various kinds - domestic, emerging markets and so forth.
• CMBX covers securities backed by mortgages on commercial property (i.e. not houses and condos.)
• LCDX is a tradable index of the cost of credit default swaps on an index of 100 corporate loans (similar to CDX loans).
• LevX is an index covering the most liquid traded corporate loans in Europe.

It should be clear from browsing these indices that there has been an abrupt change in the pricing of risk. Bulls will say, yes, but high-yield spreads (the difference in interest rates between junk bonds and Treasuries) are still nowhere near the levels they have reached in the past, so it is really no problem. To which my response is, leverage today is far higher than it has ever been in the past. The stock market has been levitating because of debt -

• traditional margin debt, borrowed money in brokerage accounts. While extreme, leverage here is generally limited to 2:1 by SEC rules so it is comparatively safe.
• leverage in hedge funds. One of the Bear funds that recently failed was leveraged 15 times. The problem is not so much the average, but the extremes.
• leveraged purchases of hedge funds, (which is why Barclay’s is now suing Bear Stearns, because they were financing Bear’s customers’ purchases of the Bear hedge funds).
• so-called private equity, really traditional leveraged buyouts. Problem here is that as rates go up, even though money may be available, the target companies aren’t earning enough to pay the interest.

The reality is that there are lots of folks out there who are leveraged 20:1 and more. It only takes a 5% loss to wipe them out. Let’s recapitulate Minsky’s classifications of borrowers in a bubble:

• Hedged borrowers, who can meet all debt payments - interest and principal repayment - from their cash flows.
• Speculative borrowers, who can meet their interest payments, but can only repay principal when the asset is sold.
• Ponzi borrowers (you remember Chuck), who can’t pay the interest, let alone the original debt, and rely entirely on rising asset prices to allow them continually to refinance their debt.

We know who the Ponzi borrowers are:

• Anyone borrowing against their property on a teaser rate - a low rate which carries a prepayment penalty - or a negative-amortization loan. Or who simply has bought or held on to property that they do not have the cash flow to carry, but must sell fairly quickly.
• The leveraged hedge funds - and the idiots (yeah, I know, judgmental) borrowing to invest in them.
• Many stock traders using margin. We know, for sure, that corporate dividend yields are way below margin rates so the margin borrower is burning money with net carry in his or her account. Maybe they can keep putting more money in. Or maybe not.

These folks are the first to go. They are the first forced sellers. Next up are the speculative buyers. These folks are forced over the side as soon as any kind of economic decline takes hold. While the corporations which have been stuffed with debt by the private equity guys (should really be called private debt) are OK today, these recent deals have been done with extremely thin interest coverage. That is, as soon as the corporation suffers any kind of reversal in a recession, they will not be able to service their debt and will default or restructure. The downward spiral soon follows. The big advantage of equity financing of a corporation is that it is undemanding, sure shareholders like dividends, but the company can withhold them at any time without penalty. (Interesting side note - after the close on Friday, American Home Mortgage announced it wasn’t going to pay its recently declared dividend, I’ve never seen that before).

Turning to the man in the street, who has met the challenge of flat real income with credit cards and borrowing against property, to say nothing of buying anything and everything with loans and leases rather than cash.

The net outcome has been a negative savings rate, which shows that household expenditure is now exceeding household income. There’s a lot of debate about what is properly considered investment, and therefore saving, not expenditure. Personally I don’t think granite countertops and Sub-Zero appliances are an investment, although technically they are considered to be. I would even argue that when the price of a house exceeds its fair value based on rental income, the excess should be considered consumption rather than investment. It is certainly malinvestment in the Austrian sense.

But any way you cut it, looking at the savings rate or the trade deficit, America consumes more than it makes and is reliant on borrowed savings from other countries to make ends meet. At some point, the carrying costs of that debt make it difficult to service. Joe and Jane Ponzi can no longer refinance or roll over asset gains to meet their carrying expenses. Then the downward spiral begins. Consumption falls, incomes fall. That’s probably where we are.

But nobody cares. Complacency rules. The chart below shows that mutual funds, the largest investors in the stock market, have practically no cash reserves with which to meet redemptions. Yet this week saw the biggest outflow from U.S. stock mutual funds in five years, according to TrimTabs.

It is likely, in my opinion, that the late afternoon selling on Friday was mutual funds meeting redemption requests. If this continues in the short term, look out below. There is no cushion, funds must sell.

In summary, we’re going to have a lot of forced sellers in the major asset markets. Foreclosures, margin calls, redemptions. Be careful out there.